Small-Scale Farmers' Vulnerability to Biophysical and Socio-Economic Risks in Semi-Arid Lowlands of Mwanga District, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania.

Agricultural production systems in semi-arid areas are vulnerable to a myriad of risks. Using a systems approach of risk framework and a mixed-methods research design, this paper sought to explore selected biophysical and socio-economic risks that contributed to vulnerability of agricultural production systems in the semi-arid lowlands of Mwanga District, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania. Despite the lack of statistically significant relationships between amounts of rainfall and crop production in the district, 30 focus group participants perceived that spatial and temporal changes of rainfall distribution as coupled with increased crop pest/disease outbreaks and soil loss contributed to vulnerability of agricultural production systems in terms of frequent crop failure and famine particularly amongst farmers who practised rain-fed farming in the semi-arid lowlands. Furthermore, participants perceived that crop production and yields were negatively influenced by poor marketing and institutional structures and that crop production and yields were negatively influenced by farmers' poor access to appropriate technologies including seeds, fertilizers, agrochemicals, agricultural machinery and infrastructure including modern irrigation schemes and all-weather roads. By way of conclusion, reduced vulnerability of agricultural production systems calls for integrated enhancement of farmers' capacity in addressing the biophysical, agro-industrial and institutional risks.

Determinants of Farmers' Adaptation Intent And Adoption of Adaptation Strategies To Climate Change And Variability In Mwanga District, Tanzania.

Pegged on Protection Motivation Theory, a modified socio-cognitive model of private adaptation to climate change and variability was deployed in order to provide a better understanding of the determinants of small-scale farmers' adaptation intent and adoption of adaptation strategies in semi-arid lowlands of Mwanga District. In this regard, adaptation was conceptualized as a two-step process encompassing farmers' perceptions that climate was changing and farmers' response to changes. Basing on a pragmatic philosophy, a cross-sectional sequential explanatory mixed methods research design was deployed. During the first step-process, categorical data were collected through administration of a closed-ended survey questionnaire to 328 household heads. Binary and proportional odds logistic regressions were run through IBM SPSS (Version 20) in order to analyze categorical data for testing nine (9) null hypotheses. Statistically significant results were established when p values were < 0.05 at 95% confidence intervals. During the second step-process, qualitative data were generated through focus group discussions with 30 participants, in-depth interviews with 16 key informants, and participant observations and subjected to iterative thematic content analysis. The findings revealed that income, village's geographical location, farming system, membership to farmer-based group, competitive price for produce, credit, age, education, and extension service positively influenced farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies while workforce and perceived risk of rain on crop yields negatively influenced farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies. Thus, it was concluded that farmers' adaptation intent and adoption of adaptation strategies in the study area were largely explained by objective adaptive capacity rather than cognitive factors.